October 16, 2009

An economic downturn. A shortage of public money. An urge amongst politicians to cut spending on infrastructure. This is 2009. But it could be the 1970s. And policy makers would do well to remember the lessons of that decade. 

That is the conclusion of ‘The 1973-1975 Energy Crisis and its Impact on Transport’ published today by the RAC Foundation.

In the early 1970s there was much debate over whether the shortage of oil and the associated hike in price would lead to a fundamental change in people’s travel behaviour. Many thought the crisis signalled the start of a big shift towards public transport and there were calls for a halt to “superfluous road building”.

The road construction programme was consequently slashed, petrol rationing was planned for, and speed limits cut to conserve fuel, yet within two years car usage continued its steady long-term climb.

Commenting on the report, the Director of the RAC Foundation, Professor Stephen Glaister, said:

“With the benefit of hindsight it is clear to see that the energy crisis of 1973–75 had little lasting impact on car ownership and traffic trends.”

“Those who believe we should do nothing to enhance the road network due to the state of the economy and climate change requirements need to think again and learn from what has gone before. Radical policies to curb car use were adopted in the 1970s and it was widely believed traffic would not increase in the future as it had in the past. These predictions were wrong. The result of these policies was to reduce mobility, rather than shift people on to public transport.”

“Investment in roads produces very high rates of return and at a time when every penny counts, politicians have a duty to get as much for taxpayers’ money as they can. And there is a similar duty to think strategically. With infrastructure projects taking so long to become reality, plans for the future need to be made and acted upon now.”

35 years ago the government tried to influence motoring behaviour because of the price and shortage of energy. Today the main motivations are CO2 emissions and global warming.

Professor Glaister continued:

“More traffic need not be bad for the environment if improved and new technologies make vehicles increasingly green. Again the experience of the past is not to be ignored. Differential rates of tax had a big impact on which vehicles drivers bought. What they did not do, was force people from their cars.”

In the 1970s, as today, there were:

·Sharply rising fuel prices

·Reductions in road traffic growth

·Significant cuts in the roads budget

·Encouragement of freight transport to move from road to rail

·A focus on railways expansion and development

·A shift in financing away from roads and towards public transport

·Different tax rates to promote different fuels (VAT on petrol was considerably higher than on diesel, as diesel was regarded as being more efficient, though only two models of car using this fuel were available in the UK market in 1974)

·Consideration of abolishing VED and increasing fuel duty thus reducing the cost of car ownership, whilst putting up the marginal cost of car use

·Discussion about the potential for electric vehicles and demonstration funding made available

·Government assistance to struggling car manufacturers.

Professor Glaister concluded:

“Today’s politicians could put their heads in the sand and pretend congestion and pollution will be solved by the economic recession. They will not. Population growth and economic recovery mean the demand for personal mobility and freight movement will rise again. The challenge is how you deal with this. And what went before might provide some answers.”

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